The Red Sea as a Theatre of Strategic Competition: Sudan’s Civil War and the Struggle for Regional Order, 2023–2026

Itakpe; Mohammed Jimoh

doi:10.56201/jpaswr.v11.no9.2026.pg183.195

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The Red Sea as a Theatre of Strategic Competition: Sudan’s Civil War and the Struggle for Regional Order, 2023–2026

Itakpe, Mohammed Jimoh

Abstract

The Sudanese civil war that began in April 2023 has become a major disturbance within the wider Red Sea–Horn of Africa security environment. This study examined how the war affected the geopolitical balance of the Red Sea region, identified the strategic interests pursued by external powers through engagement with Sudan, assessed the implications of conflict for the country’s Red Sea coastline and ports, and analysed what the war revealed about the emerging regional order. The study was anchored in Regional Security Complex Theory and adopted a qualitative documentary research design based on content analysis of recent scholarly literature, United Nations documents, government and intergovernmental records, policy studies and credible international reporting published mainly between 2023 and September 2026. The analysis found that Sudan’s strategic importance derived not simply from its coastline but from the intersection of maritime access, port infrastructure, Nile politics, gold and agricultural resources, border security and competition among Gulf, Middle Eastern, African and extra- regional powers. The war intensified regional security interdependence by connecting Sudan’s domestic conflict to Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Russia, Türkiye, Yemen and wider Red Sea maritime security. The study further found that the conflict has not produced a single new regional hierarchy; rather, it has reinforced a more fragmented and competitive order characterised by multi-alignment, external penetration and overlapping security relationships. The paper argued that the most significant transformation was therefore institutional and relational: Sudan became an increasingly important node through which regional actors pursue access, influence and security, while the war simultaneously constrained Sudan’s capacity to manage its own coastline and external relationships. The study concluded that a durable Red Sea order requires Sudanese sovereignty, regional dialogue and coordinated mechanisms for maritime, economic and conflict security.

Keywords

Red Sea; Sudan; regional security complex; geopolitical competition; Horn of Africa; maritime security; regional order

References

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The Red Sea as a Theatre of Strategic Competition: Sudan’s Civil War and the Struggle for Regional Order, 2023–2026

Abstract

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