Mobile Network Coverage and Road Surface Condition as Joint Constraints on Digitally Booked Transport Beyond State Capitals
Abstract
A digitally booked ride needs two things at once: a signal to make the booking and a road the vehicle will travel. Telecommunications statistics measure the first, road statistics the second, and neither measures the pair. We build both layers for 958 settlements of 500 people or more beyond the capitals of Osun and Kwara, 5.18 million residents, from open cell records and 37,905 km of OpenStreetMap centerline. Condition is imputed for 53.3 percent of that length, and the layer’s two independent readings agree at a Cohen’s κ of 0.041, so no settlement’s grade is reliable and no correlation computed on it is separable from that error. We expected the layers to correlate. They do not, at a Pearson correlation of 0.051 and a permutation p= 0.487, but a null this noisily measured is uninformative. What survives needs no correlation. The excess of the union over the worse single-sector statistic is identically the population that fails coverage and passes condition: 748,898 people, or 14.46 percentage points at the base thresholds. It is positive in 55 of the 56 cells of a radius-by-threshold sweep and zero in the 56th, between 0.00 and 18.85 points. A second sweep using distance to the nearest sealed classed road narrows that margin to 0.00 to 6.55 points, exactly zero in 9 of 42 cells, so the correction is real in direction and not portable in size. Half the population beyond the capitals fails at least one test, and the two failures fall on different people only under population weighting.
Keywords
digital divideroad conditionjoint constraintsride-hailingaccessibilityOpenStreetMapmobile coverageNigeria 1
References
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