IIARD International Institute of Academic Research and Development

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING AND MODERN TECHNOLOGY (IJEMT )

E-ISSN 2504-8848
P-ISSN 2695-2149
VOL. 11 NO. 6 2025
DOI: 10.56201/ijemt.vol.11.no6.2025.pg40.64

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Scenario-Based Planning for Hydrogen Infrastructure and Trade in Nigeria: Navigating Policy, Technology, and Sustainability Uncertainties

Abubakar Usman Raji

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Abstract

The global transition to a low-carbon economy has positioned hydrogen as a critical energy carrier, offering Nigeria—with its abundant natural gas reserves, vast solar potential, and established energy infrastructure—a strategic opportunity to lead Africa’s hydrogen economy. This study develops a scenario framework to address uncertainties and opportunities in Nigeria’s hydrogen infrastructure and trade, aligning with its Energy Transition Plan and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Through a mixed-methods approach, including stakeholder engagement and literature review, the paper evaluates three hydrogen production pathways: green (renewable-based), blue (natural gas with carbon capture), and grey (conventional gas- based). Each pathway presents distinct trade-offs in cost, emissions, and infrastructure requirements. The analysis identifies key drivers—technological advancements, policy support, and infrastructure investment—and constructs four plausible scenarios using an impact-uncertainty

keywords:

Hydrogen economy; Nigeria; Energy transition.

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