IIARD International Institute of Academic Research and Development

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICAL THEORY (IJASMT )

E- ISSN 2489-009X
P- ISSN 2695-1908
VOL. 11 NO. 1 2025
DOI: 10.56201/ijasmt.vol.11.no1.2025.pg105.116

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Forecasting Inflation Rates in Nigeria (2009-2024): An Evaluation of the Accuracy and Performance of SARIMA Models

Godwin Lebari TUANEH, and Victor Segun AYO

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Abstract

The study evaluated the accuracy and performance of SARIMA Models in Forecasting Inflation Rates. The study applied the Box-Jenkins methodology to build an ARIMA model for forecasting Nigeria's monthly inflation rates from November 2009 to October 2024. The results indicated that the ARIMA (3,2,1) (2,0,1) [12] model provided the best fit for predicting monthly inflation rates in Nigeria. This model was then used to forecast inflation from June 2024 to January 2026. The forecasted results are expected to provide policymakers with valuable insights for designing more effective economic and monetary policies, especially to address the forecasted rise in inflation rates in the first quarter of 2026, assuming all other factors remain unchanged.

keywords:

Accuracy, Evaluation, Forecasting, Performance, & Inflation Rates

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